Thoughtful and insightful content as usual. Maybe the best yet! Thanks. Especially appreciated Unraine versus Recency bias. This is a counterweight to the European nihilism I’m seeing.
Seems premature to count out some of the bigger chinese tech companies like Bytedance which has the chatGPT of China in terms of consumer app usage and pretty good models.
Are you factoring in the likely soon to arrive major economic contraction? Have you ever viewed "The Big Short"? There are some differences with today's situation, but IMHO these are mostly "cosmetic".
Dateline 2-28-2025 The convention halls at the Aria Resort & Casino on the Las Vegas Strip were packed for four days this past week with bankers and their clients, in uniforms of Italian sportscoats and office sneakers. They fist bumped greetings as they strode to their next meetings, giving off the feel of a joyous reunion.
The hotel’s sky suites were booked. Citigroup bankers set up more than 900 meetings. A panel on data centers was so popular, attendees sat on the floor. Bank of America arrived with clients it had just taken on a ski trip to Park City, Utah.
At 10,000 people, it was the biggest ever SFVegas—the annual gathering for the structured-finance industry. The last time it boomed like this was 2006 and 2007. Mortgage bonds were selling like crazy, and this crowd was flying high.
Then these financiers crashed the U.S. economy and sent the global financial system to the brink.
Yes. I have been advising venture entities since 1987. There is a cycle in which venture investments almost totally dry up and bankruptcies ricochet. 2008 was the last one. The next big short is well overdue. I suspect the reason the multi-billionaire AI bros are cozying up to Trump is so they will be in line for gigantic government bailouts, which materialize every time a mega-correction arrives.
Thoughtful and insightful content as usual. Maybe the best yet! Thanks. Especially appreciated Unraine versus Recency bias. This is a counterweight to the European nihilism I’m seeing.
Seems premature to count out some of the bigger chinese tech companies like Bytedance which has the chatGPT of China in terms of consumer app usage and pretty good models.
Insightful evaluations as always Peter, thanks! (and great addition on the marble racing)
Are you factoring in the likely soon to arrive major economic contraction? Have you ever viewed "The Big Short"? There are some differences with today's situation, but IMHO these are mostly "cosmetic".
I'm tracking it and I have seen "The Big Short". Are you thinking this would lead to a dry up in AI investment?
See also this from the Wall Street Journal:
Dateline 2-28-2025 The convention halls at the Aria Resort & Casino on the Las Vegas Strip were packed for four days this past week with bankers and their clients, in uniforms of Italian sportscoats and office sneakers. They fist bumped greetings as they strode to their next meetings, giving off the feel of a joyous reunion.
The hotel’s sky suites were booked. Citigroup bankers set up more than 900 meetings. A panel on data centers was so popular, attendees sat on the floor. Bank of America arrived with clients it had just taken on a ski trip to Park City, Utah.
At 10,000 people, it was the biggest ever SFVegas—the annual gathering for the structured-finance industry. The last time it boomed like this was 2006 and 2007. Mortgage bonds were selling like crazy, and this crowd was flying high.
Then these financiers crashed the U.S. economy and sent the global financial system to the brink.
Now, structured finance is back....
Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/abs-crashed-the-economy-in-2008-now-theyre-back-and-bigger-than-ever-973d5d24?mod=hp_trendingnow_article_pos1
Yes. I have been advising venture entities since 1987. There is a cycle in which venture investments almost totally dry up and bankruptcies ricochet. 2008 was the last one. The next big short is well overdue. I suspect the reason the multi-billionaire AI bros are cozying up to Trump is so they will be in line for gigantic government bailouts, which materialize every time a mega-correction arrives.