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Carolyn Meinel's avatar

If AGI were to cause mass unemployment, what about "The devil finds work for idle hands"? Many research papers allege that unemployed masses of men often cause insurgencies/civil wars, or else their leaders solve the problem by starting wars with neighbors.

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Robert de Neufville's avatar

It's a great point. I think the social disruption is likely to be enormous. We're going to collectively need to find our meaning somewhere else than in productive labor. I think we already have a problematic number of disaffected young men looking for meaning as it is.

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Carolyn Meinel's avatar

Thank you. I'm a subscriber not so much because of your superforecaster label, but because I sense that you are both wise and kind.

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Robert de Neufville's avatar

That means a lot to me, Carolyn. We need all the wisdom and kindness we can muster these days. I really appreciate your support.

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John L's avatar

Scaling reinforcement learning, rather than scaling pretraining, is why I'm hopeful about AGI. This includes optimizing models to get correct answers on logic, math, coding, and real-world analytical tasks. It also includes training them to navigate virtual environments, which will help teach them executive functioning.

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