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Sean Kucer's avatar

Thank you for your write-up on this!

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Joshua Blake's avatar

> As a data point, GPT-5 confirmed all the pre-existing trends, suggesting that AI progress is moving exactly as fast as I thought before (median AGI arrival date of 2033).

In general, being on trend shouldn't update your mean time to arrival but reduce the variance around it. Mean time to an event is almost always greater than median but reducing variance will push them closer together. Therefore, being on trend would normally increase your median arrival time but leave the mean unchanged. This update might be very small though.

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