Good article, but I’m curious where you got your references for the MOP stockpile being around 30 bombs prior to the Fordow strike? Everything I know suggests the number is much higher. The MOP production line has been active since 2011, at an average rate of 1-2 bombs per month over the past several years, and it was upgraded last year to a 6-8 bomb per month production rate (nearly a hundred per year!)
See this report by Bloomberg on the plant at Oklahoma:
That suggests the USAF has procured at least 100 bombs by now and is getting serious about procuring hundreds more, even assuming dozens have been used in operational testing.
Regardless of the true numbers, I don’t think we’re in danger of running out anytime soon.
Nice - it was just an offhand in-person comment from a nuclear expert I know but could well be wrong. The true number is classified so neither of us actually know. I agree production is ramping up - I did see that.
I saw your last article before Trump launched the attack. First time I heard of MOPs was in that article. Then saw the news. We used MOPs. Felt informed because of that article.
Great writing, thanks for making intelligent takes on the news.
Lots of thoughtful comments. I’ll add a couple of my own (in reality borrowed from others who are better informed): According to Israeli media, Israel has offered a kind of off-ramp in the form of a ceasefire “peace for peace”; Bibi has also suggested that Israel has intelligence on the missing 400kg of enriched Uranium. However, today’s action suggests that Israel is trying to strike at para-state targets and expand the conflict.
Good article, but I’m curious where you got your references for the MOP stockpile being around 30 bombs prior to the Fordow strike? Everything I know suggests the number is much higher. The MOP production line has been active since 2011, at an average rate of 1-2 bombs per month over the past several years, and it was upgraded last year to a 6-8 bomb per month production rate (nearly a hundred per year!)
See this report by Bloomberg on the plant at Oklahoma:
https://archive.ph/KB5Tg
That suggests the USAF has procured at least 100 bombs by now and is getting serious about procuring hundreds more, even assuming dozens have been used in operational testing.
Regardless of the true numbers, I don’t think we’re in danger of running out anytime soon.
Nice - it was just an offhand in-person comment from a nuclear expert I know but could well be wrong. The true number is classified so neither of us actually know. I agree production is ramping up - I did see that.
I saw your last article before Trump launched the attack. First time I heard of MOPs was in that article. Then saw the news. We used MOPs. Felt informed because of that article.
Great writing, thanks for making intelligent takes on the news.
Lots of thoughtful comments. I’ll add a couple of my own (in reality borrowed from others who are better informed): According to Israeli media, Israel has offered a kind of off-ramp in the form of a ceasefire “peace for peace”; Bibi has also suggested that Israel has intelligence on the missing 400kg of enriched Uranium. However, today’s action suggests that Israel is trying to strike at para-state targets and expand the conflict.