Welcome to "The Power Law" by Peter Wildeford

It's about to get interesting

Photo by Karsten Würth on Unsplash

Power follows patterns.

A select few nodes in any network can accumulate outsized influence. A small fraction of efforts can achieve the majority of results. Computing grows by powers of ten and each order of magnitude unlocks new capabilities. And governments use power from laws to rein in — or unleash — transformative technology.

This Substack, The Power Law, is about all these things colliding. If you’re reading this, you’ve just stepped into a conversation about these patterns sculpting our future. Some are visible, some are hidden, and all are accelerating.

As a forecaster consistently ranked in the top 1% on platforms like Metaculus and the ACX tournament, I've spent years studying these patterns. They're not just abstract concepts – they're the fundamental rules that govern everything from technological progress to geopolitical shifts. And right now, they're pointing toward something unprecedented.

In this Substack, you’ll join me, Peter Wildeford, as we map the fault lines between exponential technology and the messy, human systems trying to keep up.

What to Expect

• Forecasts, not fearmongering: We’ll dissect AI milestones and other events with the rigor of someone who forecasts with money and reputation on the line, where precision is everything and details matter.

• The 80-20 rule of geopolitics: We’ll look at why and how a small handful of decisions — from chip exports to drone swarms — disproportionately shape our future.

• Scaling laws meet human laws: When AI systems double in capability every six months, how do you make sense of them for society? Spoiler: We’re winging it.

• Power plays: From Silicon Valley boardrooms to Pentagon war games, we’ll track who’s building, buying, or bending the next era.

This isn’t a spectator sport. The goal isn’t just to predict the future, but to shape it — toward global prosperity, human freedom, and maybe even a little optimism. If that sounds daunting, good. The stakes are too high for small thinking.

So hit subscribe. Let’s get to work.

-Peter