I'd be interested to know the prediction our superforecaster host would make for when AGI will be here. 6-18 months? 1000-2000 days? The end of the current UK parliament (so, 2028-9)? Or something else?
I should clarify upfront that I'm technically not a 'superforecaster' as that is a term trademarked by Good Judgement Inc. and I am not affiliated with GJI.
I'd be interested to know the prediction our superforecaster host would make for when AGI will be here. 6-18 months? 1000-2000 days? The end of the current UK parliament (so, 2028-9)? Or something else?
I should clarify upfront that I'm technically not a 'superforecaster' as that is a term trademarked by Good Judgement Inc. and I am not affiliated with GJI.
As for AGI, I go into some detail here: https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/forecaster-reacts-metrs-bombshell
At the time, I gave my median of 2030 but have since moved more towards 2033-2034.